NOAA Issues Concerning 2024 Hurricane Outlook

For months, some experts have predicted a dangerous hurricane season on the back end of 2024, thanks to La Niña and record warm Atlantic ocean water. This morning, with the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season just over a week away, federal forecasters from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predicted an "extraordinary" season with as many as 25 named storms possible. For perspective, this is the most storms NOAA has ever predicted in a preseason outlook. Specifically, NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). All the meteorologists we work with consider NOAA to be the gold standard, due to its peer review, collaboration, and partnerships in its weather research.

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.

Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season: The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.

While hopefully the Gulf Coast is spared, most people don’t put insurance on their hurricane preparedness checklist. Having the right amount and type of insurance for your business or commercial real estate assets is a crucial component of disaster preparation, so find a reputable agent who can answer your questions. Our entire practice is committed to providing policyholders the information and advocacy they need to navigate the complexities of any type of disaster recovery.

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